The Performance by Percentile chart illustrates the statistical likelihood of achieving specific returns and ending portfolio values based on your simulation runs.
When the Monte Carlo runs are set to the default of 1,000, the simulations are grouped into percentiles and displayed across 50 bars. Each bar represents two percentiles; therefore, each bar shows the median result of 20 independent simulations within that specific percentile range.
The chart displays the full distribution of expected returns, ranging from the worst-case scenario on the far left to the best-case scenario on the far right. Horizontal lines indicate the portfolio’s starting value and the average projected ending value across all runs.
The interactive tooltip provides the annualized return as well as the starting and ending values for each segment. For example, if a bar in the 31st percentile shows an 8.7% return, it indicates that the portfolio has a 69% chance of achieving an annualized return of at least 8.7%.
