Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 10/02/2026

October 2, 2026 Stock Rover Staff  Printer Friendly

Relative Valuation Explained

Context is everything. This week, we explore how to use the Insight Panel and Research Reports to compare pricing metrics against industry peers and historical benchmarks. Read About Relative Valuation.

Economy

The Commerce Department’s third estimate showed that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026, up from the 1.5% second estimate but below the 2.5% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2026. The increase in real GDP reflected gains across several industries, with positive contributions coming from durable goods manufacturing (+0.50 percentage points), construction (+0.14 pp), and utilities (+0.13 pp). These gains were partially offset by declines in mining (-0.12 pp) and wood products (-0.01 pp). On the inflation front, the gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.6% and the PCE price index increased 5.0%, representing downward revisions of 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the second estimate. The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.3%, revised down 0.3 percentage points from the previous estimate.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing PMI® registered 54.5% in September, edging down 0.1 percentage point from August’s reading of 54.6%, while marking the ninth consecutive month of overall manufacturing expansion. The monthly reading reflected continued momentum in underlying demand, led by a 1.6 pp gain in the New Orders Index to 55.3% and a 1.5 pp increase in the Employment Index to 52.7%. These gains, along with strong output in the Production Index at 56.7% (-1.6 pp), were partially offset by a 2.0 pp decline in Inventories to 48.6%, which pulled the sub-index back into contraction. Meanwhile, cost pressures accelerated dramatically as the Prices Index jumped 6.8 pp to 77.9%, while Supplier Deliveries registered 59.0% (-0.3 pp), indicating a 10th consecutive month of slower delivery performance. On a trade-flow basis, international activity remained in expansion territory, with the New Export Orders Index at 50.9% (-2.3 pp) and the Imports Index at 51.0% (-1.5 pp).

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in September (+29,000), while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% and the labor force participation rate was essentially unchanged at 61.8%. The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, remained virtually unchanged at 1.9 million, accounting for 27.1% of all unemployed workers. Industry gains were led by health care (+17,000), construction (+11,000), and manufacturing (+9,000), whereas financial activities edged down (-7,000) and has dropped by 129,000 since its peak in May 2025. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $37.81, reflecting a 3.0% increase over the past year, while combined revisions to July and August left employment 60,000 lower than previously reported.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday October 6 – U.S. Trade Balance (August)

Wednesday October 7 – Consumer Credit (August)

Earnings Calendar: