Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 09/25/2026

September 25, 2026 Stock Rover Staff  Printer Friendly

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Economy

S&P Global reported that the Flash US Composite PMI® Output Index rose to 58.4 in September 2026, up from 56.0 in August, marking a 62-month high and accelerating business activity growth for a fourth consecutive month. The expansion was driven by the service sector, where the Business Activity Index climbed to 58.7, while the Manufacturing Output Index jumped to 56.7 and the headline Manufacturing PMI® reached 57.0. New order inflows accelerated in both sectors, prompting employment growth to reach its fastest pace since June 2022, led by strong payroll gains in services and a surge in manufacturing hiring. However, backlogs of work accumulated at the sharpest rate since May 2022 alongside severe supplier delivery delays, pointing to heightened capacity constraints. These operational bottlenecks, combined with spiking fuel and transport costs, pushed average input-cost inflation across goods and services to its highest level since October 2022.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family houses rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August 2026, up 6.4% from 643,000 in July, though remaining 2.0% below the August 2025 rate of 698,000. Sales increased across the Midwest and South, which posted gains of 84.9% and 6.9%, respectively, while sales declined 36.1% in the Northeast and 15.2% in the West. Meanwhile, the inventory of new houses for sale held steady at 483,000 units, virtually unchanged from July, while the faster pace of transactions reduced the months’ supply by 5.6% to 8.5 months. Pricing trends remained varied across metrics, as the median sales price edged up 0.4% sequentially to $393,700, a 5.8% year-over-year decline, while the average sales price fell 9.1% from July to $478,700, down 8.8% compared to August 2025.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods were virtually unchanged at $338.6 billion in August 2026, following a revised 0.9% increase in July. The headline reading was weighed down by transportation equipment, which dropped 0.6% to $114.1 billion after falling in three of the past four months, while new orders excluding transportation grew 0.3% to $224.5 billion and orders excluding defense rose 0.1% to $313.4 billion. Operational activity showed mixed momentum, as shipments of durable goods slipped 0.2% to $333.8 billion following July’s 0.9% advance, while total inventories increased 0.5% to $608.1 billion and unfilled orders expanded 0.6% to $1,609.4 billion. Meanwhile, underlying business investment indicators remained positive, as core capital goods orders (nondefense excluding aircraft) rose 1.6% to $87.6 billion alongside a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments to $85.0 billion.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday September 30 – GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Friday October 2 – Unemployment Rate (September)

Earnings Calendar: