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A 28 month high in services growth at 56.9 (+2.2 M/M) was partially offset by a 2 month low in manufacturing growth of 52.5 (-0.8 M/M), and a 14 month low in manufacturing output growth of 52.2 (-1.9 M/M), bringing the composite IHS Markit’s Flash U.S. Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for August to a 27 month high of 56.0 (+1.4 M/M). Factors that accelerated service growth included improved client demand, hiring new staff, input cost inflation for raw materials, and inflation in prices charged for services. For manufacturing, a slowdown in growth rates for new orders and output drove down purchasing activity and inventory growth, while increases in input costs were not reflected by increases in prices charged.
The Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 18th showed declines in both crude oil inventories (-3.3M barrels) and gasoline (-1.2M barrels), and no change in distillate inventory. Compared to the same period last year, inventories were down for crude oil (-6.0%), gasoline (-1.2%), and distillates (-3.2%), although all inventories were within their average range for this time of year. Refineries operated at 95.4% of their capacity, averaging gasoline output of 10.6M barrels/day, with demand for gasoline averaging 9.7M barrels/day, down -0.4% compared to the previous year. The Energy Information Administration anticipates that Hurricane Harvey will have significant effects on petroleum production, and provides an Energy Disruptions map to chart the effects of the storm.
New orders for durable goods in July were down -6.8% compared to June, but June’s unusually high +6.4% increase was based almost entirely on a +227% increase in new aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile transportation component, new orders were up +0.5% for the third consecutive month, and new orders for core capital goods, which exclude defense and aircraft, and serve as a measure of business investment, were up +0.4%. Shipments were up +0.4% and inventories increased +0.3%, both of which were led by transportation, which had a +0.5% increase in shipments and a +0.4% increase in inventories.
Wednesday August 30 – Q2 GDP
Friday September 1 – August Employment Situation