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The IHS Markit US Composite PMI was revised down slightly to 63.7 in June, from a preliminary estimate of 63.9, as compared to May’s record high of 68.7. The growth rate and activity were still the second-fastest on record as new business and export orders continued to climb. Job creation subsided amid the challenges associated with hiring new employees. The employee shortage also constrained output capacity, as work backlogs rose at a record pace. Supplier price hikes and higher payrolls pushed input prices to the second-fastest rate on record. The increased demand allowed firms to partially pass on their costs to clients with the second-highest ever increase in average selling prices for goods and services. June’s output capacity was also strained by new order inflows as outstanding business was at its sharpest level in ten months. Business optimism improved to the highest level since November 2020.
The U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTs reported a record 9.21 million job openings as of the last day of May, from a downwardly revised 9.19M in April. This is the fifth consecutive month of increased job openings. The job openings rate was unchanged at 6%. Total hires decreased to 5.93M from 6.01M in May, while the hires rate came in at 4.1%. Increases came in other services (+109,000), state and local government education (+46,000), and educational services (+35,000). There were decreases in the number of job openings in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-80,000); state and local government, excluding education (-56,000); and federal government (-17,000). The number of workers who left their jobs voluntarily dropped to 3.6M in May, while the quits rate dropped to 2.5%.
The Labor Department reported slightly higher initial jobless claims for the week ending July 3rd. The seasonally adjusted initial claims came in at 373,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 394,500, this is the lowest reading since March 2020’s 225,500 value. The number of continuing unemployment claims made through regular state programs fell by 145,000 to 3.34 million for the week ended June 26, this the lowest reading for insured unemployment since March 2020’s 3.09M. The four-week moving average for continuing claims fell by 44,500 to 3.44M. Unemployment assistance payments made through pandemic programs fell by nearly 465,000 for the week ended June 19. There were 14.2M people receiving benefits for the week ending June 19th, a fall from previous weeks 14.7M. About 10.7M of the 14.2M are enrolled in emergency programs such as the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program.
Tuesday July 13 – Core CPI (MoM) (June)
Friday July 16 – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (June)