Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 07/01/2022


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The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted $267.2 billion in May. The increase, up seven of the last eight months, follows a downwardly revised +0.4% in April, which was originally reported as a +0.5% reading. A primary contributor to the increase was transportation equipment, up two consecutive months, at +0.8% to $87.6B. On a year-over-year basis, new orders for manufactured durable goods grew 10.9%. Ex-defense orders rose 0.6% month over month, while ex-transportation orders rose 0.7%. Core capital goods orders, which exclude the volatile aircraft and defense orders increased by 0.5%, this followed a 0.3% increase in April. Contributing factors to capital goods orders were increases in orders for primary metals, communications equipment, and machinery. Core durable goods shipments increased 1.6% in May, up from a 0.8% reading in April, and are up 12.3% year over year. Total durable-goods orders are up 11.4% from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks the number of homes that are under contract to be sold reported up a slight 0.7% in May to 99.9, stemming six consecutive months of declines. Last month, pending home sales, dropped by 3.9%. “Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates.” Month over month pending home sales were mixed with the Northeast (+15.4%) and South (+0.2%) in the positive, and the Midwest (-1,7%) and West (-5.0%) in the negative. Home-buying activity is still quite sluggish as the year over year pending sales figures are down 13.6%. Year over year pending home sales are down in all regions – Northeast (-11.9%), South (-13.8%), Midwest (-8.8%), and West (-19.8%).

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index rose 0.5% in May, as the annual inflation rate remained at 6.3%. PCE inflation remains below March’s 40-year high of 6.6%. While personal income increased 0.5% (+$113.4 B), overall personal spending rose 0.2% (+$32.7B). Spending on goods fell 0.7% (-$43.5B), but the bigger services category saw a 0.7% increase (+$76.2B). Spending for April was revised downward to a 0.6% gain from an initially reported 0.9% increase. Energy prices increased at an annual rate of 35.8% while food prices increased 11.0%. The Core PCE Price Index which strips out food and energy and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflation climbed 0.3% increase in May, increasing 4.7% for the 12 months ending in May, decelerating slightly from the 4.9% reported in April, and the 40-year high of 5.2% reported in March.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday July 6 – JOLTs Job Openings (May)

Friday July 8 – Unemployment Rate (June)

Earnings Calendar:


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