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The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 0.7% in January to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.0M, down (-36.9%) as compared to January 2022. Home sales have now dropped for twelve consecutive months. Sales of single-family homes fell to a 3.59M annual rate (-36.1% Y/Y) and existing condo sales dropped to a 401K annual rate (-43.1% Y/Y). Total housing inventory reported in at 980K, up 2.1% over December’s inventory (+15.3% Y/Y). Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days, up from 26 days in December. Unsold inventory is at a 2.9-month run rate, unchanged from December but up from 1.6 months in January 2022. Fifty-four percent of the homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month. The median sales price increased to $359,000 (+1.3% Y/Y). The median existing single-family home price was $363,100 in January (+0.7% Y/Y) while existing condo price was $320,000 (+5.2% Y/Y). Regionally the West (+2.9%) and the South (+1.1%) held steady in monthly existing-home sales while the Northeast (-3.8%), and Midwest (-5.0%) saw declines.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate on fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reported an economy expanding at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 2.7%, a deceleration from the 3.2% pace set in the third quarter, and down slightly from the first estimate of 2.9%. For all of 2022, the GDP grew by 2.1%, down from 5.9% in 2021. A revision in consumer spending from a 2.1% rate to 1.4% was a primary contributor to the downward revision. Household spending accounts for some 70% of U.S. economic activity. A partial offset was business investment which grew at a 3.7% pace as compared to a previously reported 1.4%. Inflation rose at an annual 3.7% pace in the fourth quarter, as compared to 4.3% in Q3. The PCE Price Index was revised up to 3.7% from the first estimate of 3.2%. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, was revised up to 4.3% from an initial estimate of 3.9%.
The U.S Census Bureau reported that sales of newly built homes increased 7.2% in January from an upwardly revised December rate of 625,000. This marks the second consecutive month of increases and the strongest reading since March 2022. The headline numbers show that while new home sales jumped, prices fell. The January seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 is down 19.4% from a year earlier. The South lead the way with a significant jump in sales (+17.1%). New home sales decreased in the other 3 regions; Northeast (-19.4%), Midwest (-6.9%), and West (-7.3%). The average sale price for a new home sold in January was $474,400, down from $544,200 the previous month. The median new home sales price dropped from $465,600 in December to $427,500 in January. There were 439,000 new homes for sale as of the end of January, the vast majority of which were either under construction (280,000) or not yet started (91,000). The supply of new homes for sale decreased to a 7.9-month supply in January, as compared to 8.7 months in December. The supply of new homes for sale in January 2022 was 5.7 months.
Monday February 27 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (January)
Wednesday March 1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)
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