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The Labor Department reported a slight decrease in initial jobless claims for the week ending January 6th. The seasonally adjusted initial claims slipped to 202,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level. This marks the lowest reading since October 2023. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility, was 207,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average. According to the unadjusted data New Jersey (-4,185), Massachusetts (-3,423), and Connecticut (-2,660) led the decrease in initial claims; while New York (+20,775), California (+9,990), and Texas (+8,915) led in increases. On an unadjusted basis, claims rose 47,632 to 317,048. Of the 53 states and U.S. territories that report jobless claims, 31 reported increases and 22 reported declines. For the week ending December 30, the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s upwardly revised rate. The total number of unemployment claims reported in at 1.834M down 34,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level. The continuing claims’ 4-week moving average was 1.864M, a decrease of 12,500 from the previous downwardly revised level. For the week ending December 23, 1.927M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 63,471 from the previous week. There were some 1.734M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2022.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index increased 0.3% in December, this follows seasonally adjust readings of (+0.1%), (0.0%), and (+0.4%) over the previous months. The all items index has increased (+3.4%) over the last 12 months. This compares to (+3.1%), (+3.2%), and (+3.7%) over the previous months. Over half of the all items increase is attributable to a (+0.5%) rise in the shelter index, which has increased 44 consecutive months. The energy index increased (+0.4%) as increases in the indexes for electricity (+1.3%) and gasoline (+0.2%) were offset by decreases in fuel oil (-5.5%) and natural gas (-0.4%). The food index increased (+0,2%), and follows readings of (+0.2%), (+0.3%), and (+0.2%) over the previous months. Core CPI inflation which excludes food and energy increased (+0.3%) in December and follows readings of (+0.3%), (+0.2%), and (+0.3%), over the previous months. The annual rate of core CPI inflation dropped slightly to (+3.9%) as compared to (+4.0%), (+4.0%), and (+4.1%) over the previous months, this represents the smallest 12-month change since May 2021. The shelter index increased (+6.2%) year-over-year, accounting for over two thirds of the total increase in Core CPI. Other indexes with significant increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+20.3%), recreation (+2.7%), personal care (+5.0%), and education (+2.4%).
The Labor Department reported that the producer price index for final demand, which measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, decreased by a seasonally adjusted (-0.1%) in December. This follows readings of (-0.1%), (-0.4%), and (+0.4%) over the previous months. On an unadjusted basis the PPI is up (+1.0%) on a year-over-year basis, after a (+6.4%) increase in 2022. The index for final demand goods fell for the third consecutive month (-0.4%). Nearly 50% of the decrease in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a (-12.4%) drop in diesel fuel. The index for final demand services was unchanged. This follows readings of (0.0%), (0.0%), and (+0.2%) over the previous months. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI was flat in December. This follows readings of (+0.1%), (0.0%), and (+0.2%) over the previous months. The core PPI is up (+2.5%) from a year ago. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI was up (+0.2%). This follows readings of (+0.1%), (+0.1%), and (+0.3%) over the previous months.
Wednesday January 17 – Retail Sales (MoM) (December)
Friday January 19 – Existing Home Sales (MoM) (December)
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