Rover's Weekly Market Brief — 8/16/2019

Indices

DJIA: 25,886.00 (-1.53%)

NASDAQ: 7,896.00 (-0.79%)

S&P 500: 2,889.00 (-1.02%)

Commodities

Gold: 1,525.10 (+1.54%)

Copper: 259.50 (+0.23%)

Crude Oil: 54.47 (-0.06%)

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Economy

Increases in the cost of energy (+1.3%), medical services (+0.5%) and shelter (+0.3%) helped push the consumer price index up by +0.3% in July, bringing year over year CPI inflation up to 1.8% (+0.1%). A +2.5% hike in gasoline prices, up from a -3.6% drop the previous month, drove the increase in energy costs for the month but yearly prices were down -3.3% for gasoline and -2.0% for energy overall. On a yearly basis shelter prices increased the most (+3.5%), followed by medical care services (+3.3%), and food away from home (+3.2%), while yearly prices dropped the most for fuel oil (-6.0%), gasoline (-3.3%), and piped gas (-2.9%). Price gains for used vehicles outpaced new vehicles, with used vehicles up +0.9% for the month and +1.5% Y/Y versus new vehicle prices down -0.2% for the month and up +0.3% Y/Y.

Retail sales surged by a higher than expected +0.7% in July with gains in all categories except sporting goods/hobby stores (-1.1%), motor vehicles (-0.6%), and health/personal care stores (-0.2%). Nonstore (e.g. online) retailers led gains with a +2.8% increase for the month and were up +16.0% for the year, followed by a +1.8% gain for gasoline stations, although they were down -2.3% Y/Y. Department store sales grew +1.2% for the month after a -1.1% drop in June, but still remained at a -4.7% decline for the year. Sales excluding the volatile motor vehicle and gas station components were up +0.9% for the month and +4.2% for the year.

Industrial production was revised upwards from flat to +0.2% growth in June, but fell -0.2% in July, dropping year over year growth to +0.5% from +1.3% in June. Mining fell -1.8% for the month and capacity utilization dropped 2% to 89.2%, but this was deemed a temporary decline due to Hurricane Barry’s impact on oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico, and mining was up +5.5% on a yearly basis. Manufacturing dropped by -0.4% for the month, and capacity utilization fell -0.4% to 75.4%, continuing a trend that has led to more than -1.5% in production declines since December 2018. The only sizeable gains in durable goods manufacturing were in aerospace/miscellaneous transportation equipment (+1.4%) while notable drops were seen for nonmetallic mineral products (-1.1%), machinery (-1.1%), and primary metals (-1.0%). Other than paper products at a +1.3% gain, all nondurable categories fell with the steepest drops for plastics/rubber products (-1.6%), textile and product mills (-1.4%), and printing (-1.0%).

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday August 21 – FOMC Minutes

Friday August 23 – New Home Sales

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
The Estee
Lauder Cos
(EL)
Home
Depot
(HD)
Lowe’s
Companies
(LOW)
Salesforce.com
(CRM)
Foot
Locker
(FL)
Sunnova
Energy Intl
(NOVA)
TJX
Companies
(TJX)
Target
(TGT)
Intuit
(INTU)
Buckle
(BKE)



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