Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 10/14/2022

October 14, 2022 Printer Friendly Printer Friendly


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The Labor Department reported that the producer price index for final demand increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in September after declining 0.2% in August and 0,4% in July. On an unadjusted basis the PPI, a measure of prices that U.S. businesses get for the goods and services they produce, is up 8.5% on a year-over-year basis showing a slight deceleration from August’s 8.7% reading. Two-thirds of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.4% increase in prices for final demand services, a higher reading over August’s 0.3%. Over a quarter of the September increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 6.4% increase in prices for traveler accommodation services. The index for final demand goods also increased 0.4% in September, after dropping 1.1% the previous month. The index for final demands foods was a primary contributor as the 1.2% increase accounted for 60% of the advance in final demand goods. Prices for final demand energy rose 0.7%. Taking out the volatile food and energy categories, the PPI index increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 7.2% on a yearly basis. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the PPI index increased 0.4% for the month and 5.6% from a year ago.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index rose 0.4% in September. Over the last 12 months, the all items index is up 8.2% before seasonal adjustment as compared to 8.3% in August. It has remained above the 8% level for seven consecutive months. On a monthly basis, the all items index was up (+0.4%), as compared to (+0.1%) in August, and a flat reading in July. Increases in the medical care (+1.0%), food (+0.8%), and shelter (+0.7%) indexes were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. Offsetting the increase was a (-4.9%) decline in the gasoline index. The energy index declined (-2.1%) for the month, but natural gas (+2.9%) and electricity (+0.4%) both saw increases. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September, matching August’s reading. Contributing to the increase were indexes for shelter (+0.7%), rent (+0.8%), medical care (+0.8%), motor vehicle insurance (+1.6%), household furnishings (+0.5%), personal care (+0.4%), education (+0.4%), airline fares (+0.8%), and recreation (+0.1%). Indexes that saw declines included used cars and trucks (-1.1%), apparel (-0.3%), and communication (-0.1%). The annual rate of core CPI inflation is now at a 40-year record high of 6.6%, up from 6.3% in August. The shelter index is up 6.6% year over year and accounts for about 40% of the total increase in Core CPI.

The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales were little changed at $684.0B in September, this follows an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in August. Retail sales are up 8.2% year over year. Total sales for July 2022 through September 2022 were up 9.2% year over year. Increased in sales were reported at department stores (+1.3%), general merchandise (+0.7%), restaurants (+0.5%), clothing stores (+0.5%), personal care (+0.5%), internet (+0,5%) and grocery stores (+0.4%). Offsetting the increases were decreases in miscellaneous retailers (-2.5%), gas stations (-1.4%), electronics (-0.8%), home furnishings (-0.7%), auto dealerships (-0.4%), and home and garden (-0.4%). When sales for gas stations and autos are excluded, retail sales increased by 0.3%. Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services increased by 0.4% in September. August’s core retail sales were revised to show sales increasing by 0.2% instead of flat.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday October 19 – Beige Book

Thursday October 20 – Existing Home Sales (September)

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