Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 08/22/2025

Checking ETF Size and Style

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Economy

The U.S. Census Bureau report showed mixed performance in the housing market for July, with building permits declining as compared to June 2025, while housing starts and completions posted gains. There were 1.354 million building permits issued, a 2.8% decrease from June and a 5.7% decrease from July 2024. Single-family permits edged up 0.5%, while multifamily permits with five or more units fell 9.9%. Meanwhile, housing starts rose 5.2% to 1.428M compared to the previous month and were up 12.9% year-over-year, as single-family starts increased 2.8% and multifamily starts climbed 11.6%. Housing completions advanced 6.0% from June to 1.415M, though they were 13.5% below July 2024, with single-family completions jumping 11.6% and multifamily completions declining 2.8%. The number of houses approved for construction but not yet started declined 2.6% to 263K units, with the backlog for single-family housing slipping 2.8% to 139K and multifamily housing decreasing 3.2% to 120K.

The minutes from the July 29–30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reflected a measured tone among participants. The Committee kept the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent, noting that the labor market remained solid with unemployment low, even as overall economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Inflation was described as “somewhat elevated,” with recent tariff increases contributing to greater uncertainty in the near-term outlook. Most participants agreed that maintaining the current policy stance was appropriate, while a few favored lowering the target range by 25 basis points given signs of slowing growth and softer private payroll gains. The minutes also highlighted the ongoing balance sheet runoff and reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, while emphasizing that future policy decisions would depend on incoming data and evolving economic conditions.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) edged down 0.1% in July to 98.7, following a 0.3% decline in June, reflecting continued softness in the U.S. economic outlook. The latest drop was driven primarily by weak new orders and subdued consumer expectations, though rising stock prices helped offset steeper losses. Over the six months from January to July 2025, the LEI fell 2.7%, accelerating from a 1.0% contraction over the prior six-month period. While the LEI’s negative growth rate is a recession signal, The Conference Board does not currently expect a recession to begin. However, it anticipates slower economic growth in the second half of 2025 as the effects of recently imposed tariffs become more apparent. The Conference Board projects real GDP to expand by 1.6% in 2025 before easing to 1.3% in 2026. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) rose 0.2% to 114.9 in July, suggesting that current economic conditions remain stable, while the Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) was unchanged at 119.9.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Monday August 25 – New Home Sales (July)

Tuesday August 26 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (July)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Heico (HEI)	Box (BOX)	Five Below (FIVE)	Dell Technologies (DELL)	BRP (DOO.TO)
Semtech (SMTC)	PVH (PVH)	NVIDIA (NVDA)	Dollar General (DG)	Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB.TO)