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The Institute for Supply Management’s July Manufacturing report reflected growth for most industries, but contraction for Transportation Equipment, Machinery and Fabricated Metal Products. Both manufacturing imports and exports grew, and prices continued to increase, while employment continued to contract, albeit at a slowing rate. The Services report similarly showed growth in most industries with the exception of “Other” Services, Mining, and Professional and Technical Services. Services employment continued its 5th consecutive month of employment contraction, and service exports and imports reversed from growth to contraction. Respondents in both reports noted COVID-19 related business adaptations and uncertainty over future conditions.
Exports grew +9.4% in June to $158.3 billion, outpacing a +4.7% increase in imports to $208.9 billion, and lowering the trade deficit to $50.7 billion (-7.5%). Year to date exports were $1.265 trillion, down -16.7% from 2019, and year to date imports were down -14.2% to $1.341 trillion. Goods exports were led by automobiles (+$4.9 billion), capital goods (+$3.8 billion), and industrial supplies (+$2.8 billion). Imports increased for automobiles (+$9.7 billion), consumer goods (+$4.7 billion), and capital goods (+$2.2 billion), but were offset by a -$8.3 billion decrease in industrial supplies, led by a -$5.9 billion drop in nonmonetary gold. The largest trade deficits were with China (-$26.7 billion), the European Union (-$13.1 billion), and Mexico (-$9.0 billion).
There were +1.8 million jobs added in July, slowing from gains of +4.8 million in June and +2.7 million in May. The unemployment rate dropped by -0.9% to 10.2%, bringing the number of unemployed persons down to 16.3 million, which is 12.9 million higher than the unemployment level in February. Misclassifications of laid off workers decreased significantly from previous month’s errors, and was estimated at less than 1% for July. Jobs increased notably for leisure and hospitality (+592,000), retail trade (+258,000), local government education (+215,000), and professional and business services (+170,000). The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployed and discouraged workers, fell to 16.5% (-1.5%), compared to 6.9% one year previously.
Tuesday August 11 – Producer Price Index
Friday August 14 – Retail Sales