Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 07/15/2022


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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index rose 1.3% in June and follows a 1.0% increase in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index is up 9.1% before seasonal adjustment, the fastest rate since 1981. Nearly half the all times increase is attributable to a 7.5% increase in the energy index, which followed a 3.9% reading in May. Energy prices are up 41.6% on a 12-month basis. Increases in the indexes for shelter (+0.6%), gasoline (+11.2%), and food (+1.0%) were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The rise in all items was broad-based with the indexes for motor vehicle repair (+2.0%), apparel (+0.8%), household furnishings and operations (+0.4%), and recreation (+0.3%) all seeing increases in June. A few indexes declined in June including lodging away from home (-2.8%) and airline fares (-1.8%). Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in June, up from May’s 0.6% reading. Shelter (+0.6%), used cars and trucks (+1.6%), medical care (+0.4%), motor vehicle insurance (+1.9%), and new vehicles (+0.7%) all contributed. The annual rate of core CPI inflation is 5.9%, down from 6.0% in May. March’s 6.5% core CPI inflation rate was the highest reading since August 1982.

The Labor Department reported an increase in initial jobless claims for the week ending July 9th. This marks the second straight week of increase. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported in at 244,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 235,750 an increase of 3,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average. New York (+10,209) and Kentucky (+3,091) led the increase in initial claims, while New Jersey (-3,466) and California (-2,961) saw the most decreases. For the week ending July 2nd, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as the insured unemployment rate was 0.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. Continuing claims were reported in at 1.331M down 41,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. The continuing claims 4-week moving average was 1,339,500, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. For the week ending June 25th, 1.400M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 72,504, from the previous week’s level. There were some 13.815M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.

The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales increased 1.0% to $680.6B in June, this follows an upwardly revised 0.1% decline in May. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation which rose 1.3% on a monthly basis, this means real retail sales actually declined slightly. Retail sales are up 8.4% year over year. Total sales for April 2022 through June 2022 were up 8.1% year over year. Contributing to the increase were sales at gasoline stations (+3.6%), online sales (+2.2%), furniture and home (+1.4%), and restaurants and food service (+1.0%). Sales were down at building material and garden stores (-0.9%) and clothing accessory stores (-0.4%). When sales for gas stations and autos are excluded, retail sales increased 0.7%. Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services increased 0.8% in June. May’s core retail sales were revised down to show sales dropping 0.3% instead of being unchanged.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday July 19 – Building Permits (MoM) (June)

Thursday July 21 – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)

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