Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 06/23/2023


DJIA: 33,728.70 (-1.66%)

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S&P 500: 4,348.41 (-1.39%)


Gold: 1,929.50 (-1.48%)

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Crude Oil: 69.29 (-3.47%)

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The U.S. Census Bureau reported new residential building permits were up 5.2% in May to a seasonally adjusted 1.491M, (-12.7%) below the May 2022 rate of 1.708M. Single-family permits were up (+4.8%) to 897K, from an upwardly revised April figure of 856K. New residential building permits surged in the Northeast (+27.1%), followed by the Midwest (+7.5%), West (+6.0%), and South (+1.5%). Privately-owned housing starts surged (+21.7%) from a downwardly revised April estimate to 1.631M, (+5.7%) above the May 2022 rate of 1.543M. Single-family starts were up (+18.5%) to 997K, as single-family homebuilding increased in the Midwest (+59.1%), South (+21.0%), and Northeast (+8.8%); only the West decreased (-4.1%). Privately-owned housing completions reported at 1.518M, up (+9.5%) from an upwardly revised April figure of 1.386M, up (+5.0%) over May 2022. Single-family housing completions reported in at 1.009M, a (+3.9%) increase from the April rate of 971K, down (-3.3%) from May 2022.

The National Association of Realtors reported flat existing home sales with a slight 0.2% increase in May to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.30M, down (-20.4%) as compared to May 2022. “Mortgage rates heavily influence the direction of home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. This marks 10 consecutive months of annual sales declines of 20% or more. Sales of single-family homes dipped (-0.3%) to a 3.85M annual rate (-20.0% Y/Y), while existing condo sales increased (+4.7%) to a 450K annual rate (-23.7% Y/Y). Regionally the West (+2.6%) and the South (+1.5%) saw a boost in existing home sales, while the Midwest (-2.9%), and Northeast (-2.0%) both saw declines. Total housing inventory increased (+3.8%) to 1.08M (-6.1% Y/Y). Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days, down from 22 days in April. Unsold inventory reported in at a 3.0 month run rate, up from 2.9 months in April, and 2.6 months in May 2022. Seventy-four percent of homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month. The median sales price was $396,100 (-3.1% Y/Y). The median existing single-family home price was $401,100 in May (-3.4% Y/Y) while the median existing condo price was $353,000 (unchanged Y/Y).

S&P Global reported that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 53.0 in June from 54.3 in May. While it is the lowest reading since March 2023, it marks the fifth straight month above 50, indicating growth in the private sector. Business activity was driven primarily by the services sector as manufacturing contracted. The services sector, although still in expansion territory did show a softening as S&P Global Flash US Services PMI fell to 54.1 from 54.9 in May. The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.3 from 48.4, registering the fastest rate of contraction in new orders since December 2022. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global commented, “the question remains as to how resilient service sector growth can be in the face of the manufacturing decline and the lagged effect of prior rate hikes. Any further rate hikes will of course have a further dampening effect on this sector which is especially susceptible to changes in borrowing costs.”

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday June 27 – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)

Thursday June 29 – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)

Earnings Calendar:


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