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The S&P Global Flash US PMI® report showed improved US business activity in May, as the S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI Composite Output Index rose to 52.1 from April’s 50.6 — the highest in two months. The Flash U.S. Services PMI Business Activity Index also climbed to a two-month high of 52.3, up from 50.8. Manufacturing returned to expansion, with the Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index hitting a three-month high at 50.7, compared to 49.6 in April, and the Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increasing to 52.3 from 50.2. The growth in business activity came with the steepest price increase since August 2022, driven by tariffs. Despite strong domestic demand, exports declined for a second month, with service exports seeing their sharpest drop since early 2020. Business confidence rose slightly but remained cautious amid ongoing concerns over tariffs, supply chains, and costs. Employment declined in May, with job losses in both services and manufacturing.
The National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing-home sales decreased by 0.5% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million. Sales declined 2.0% Y/Y. Single-family home sales dropped 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.63 million, decreasing 1.4% Y/Y. Existing condominium and co-op sales decreased 2.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000 units, down 7.5% Y/Y. Total housing inventory increased 9.0% from March to 1.45 million units, which is up 20.8% Y/Y. Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days in April, which is down from 36 days in March but up from 26 days in April 2024. This left unsold inventory at a 4.4-month supply rate, up from 4.0 months in March and 3.5 months in April 2024. The median existing-home price for all housing types was $414,000, increasing 1.8% Y/Y. The Northeast and Midwest saw price increases, while the South and West registered price decreases. As of May 15, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.81%, which is up from 6.76% one week prior but down from 7.02% Y/Y.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of newly built single-family homes rose (+10.9%) month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 743,000 in April, up from a revised 670,000 in March. Sales were also up +3.3% Y/Y from April 2024. Regionally, sales jumped in the Midwest (+35.5%) and South (+11.7%) month over month, while the West saw a small gain (+3.3%) and the Northeast declined (-14.8%). Compared to a year ago, sales were down in the Northeast -25.8% Y/Y, but up in the South +6.5% Y/Y, Midwest +1.2% Y/Y, and West +1.3% Y/Y. The number of new homes for sale edged down to 504,000 -0.6% M/M but rose +8.6% Y/Y. The months’ supply of homes dropped to 8.1 from 9.1 in March (-11.0%) and was up +5.2% Y/Y. The median sale price increased to $407,200 +0.8% M/M, though it declined -2.0% Y/Y. The average price climbed to $518,400, up +3.7% M/M and +3.6% Y/Y.
Tuesday May 27 – Consumer Confidence (May)
Thursday May 29 – GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
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