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The Chicago Business Barometer (also known as the Chicago PMI), which tracks regional manufacturing and service activity, fell to 52.8 in March, down 4.9 points from the prior month after three consecutive increases. Despite the decline, the index remained above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction for a third straight month, indicating continued but slower growth. The overall decrease was mainly driven by weakness in Employment (-12.8 points), along with declines in Production (-9.3 points), reflecting fewer firms reporting higher output, and New Orders (-7.8 points), though new orders remained in expansionary territory. While Order Backlogs (+6.4 points) and Supplier Deliveries (+4.9 points) provided some support, both reaching their highest levels in several months, these gains were not enough to offset the broader slowdown. Prices Paid rose (+3.4 points), suggesting renewed input cost pressures, with respondents citing higher metals prices and geopolitical tensions as key factors.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales were $738.4 billion in February 2026, up (+0.6%) from the prior month; this follows a downwardly revised decline of (-0.1%) in January. Total retail and food services sales were up (+3.7%) year over year, while sales for the December 2025 through February 2026 period increased (+3.1%) from the same period a year earlier. Retail sales, which are primarily goods and are not adjusted for inflation, showed a broadly positive monthly trend, led by gains in health & personal care stores (+2.3%), clothing & clothing accessories stores (+2.0%), and motor vehicle & parts dealers (+1.2%), while general merchandise stores were flat (0.0%) and both furniture & home furnishings stores (-1.0%) and food & beverage stores (-1.0%) declined. On an annual basis, sporting goods & hobby stores (+11.3%), miscellaneous store retailers (+10.2%), and nonstore retailers (+7.5%) posted the strongest gains, helping to support overall growth.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, while the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3% and the labor force participation rate edged down to 61.9%. The number of long-term unemployed was little changed at 1.8 million but is up by 322,000 over the past year, accounting for 25.4% of all unemployed workers. Job gains were concentrated in health care (+76,000), construction (+26,000), and transportation and warehousing (+21,000), while federal government employment continued to decline (-18,000) and financial activities (-15,000) also posted losses. Since peaking in October 2024, federal employment has fallen by 355,000, or 11.8%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.09 to $37.38, representing a 3.5% increase over the past year, while revisions to January and February combined left employment 7,000 lower than previously reported.
Wednesday April 8 – FOMC Minutes (March)
Friday April 10 – CPI (MoM) (March)
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