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The ISM® (Institute for Supply Management®) Non-Manufacturing PMI® reported in at 56.5% in November, besting October’s 54.4% reading. The 12-month average of 57.2%, shows that there is strong growth in the services sector, which has expanded for 30 consecutive months. A PMI reading over 50 indicates monthly expansion in the services sector, which makes up almost two-thirds of the U.S. economy. “The rate of growth increased in November due to increases in business activity and employment,” said Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.” ISM®’s Business Activity Index jumped to 64.7% from 55.7% in October. The employment index reversed course registering 51.5%, following a 3.9 percentage point drop to 49.1% in October. Pricing pressures eased as the Prices Index which is a gauge of what services industries pay for inputs reported down 0.7 percentage points to 70.0%. inventories shrank as the Inventories Index came in at 47.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from October. The Supplier Deliveries Index slowed, dropping 2.4 percentage points to 53.8%. A reading above 50% indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50% indicates faster deliveries.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) raised its forecast for this year’s crude production to 11.87 million barrels per day (mbpd), up slightly from the previous estimate of 11.83 mbpd. For 2023 crude oil production is projected to exceed 2019’s record 12.29 mbpd, increasing to 12.34 mbpd. Global oil inventories are forecast to fall by 0.2 mbpd in the first half of 2023 before rising by almost 0.7 mbpd in the second half of 2023. U.S. refinery is projected to remain near its five-year average through 2023. The STEO expects Brent crude to average $101.48 this year, a drop of 0.6% from the November forecast. West Texas Intermediate crude prices are expected to average $95.22 a barrel, down 0.7% from the previous forecast. The EIA also reduced its Brent oil and West Texas Intermediate forecasts for 2023 by about 3% each to $92.36 for Brent and $86.36 for WTI. Natural gas prices are expected to increase, as the Henry Hub spot price is expected to average more than $6.00 per million British thermal units, up from November’s monthly average of about $5.50.
The Labor Department reported that the producer price index for final demand increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in November, this marks 3 consecutive months that the headline PPI rose 0.3%. On an unadjusted basis the PPI, a measure of prices that U.S. businesses get for the goods and services they produce, is up 7.4% on a year-over-year basis, which is down from October’s 8.1% reading. Most of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.4% increase in prices for final demand services, a higher reading over October’s 0.1%. Nearly 60% of the November increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to an 11.3% increase in prices for financial services. The index for final demand goods bumped up just 0.1% in November, a deceleration from the 0.6% increase the previous month. A 3.3% increase in the index for final demands foods was a primary contributor to the advance in final demand goods, with the index for fresh and dry vegetables up 38.1%. An offset was a 6.0% drop in the gasoline index. Taking out the volatile food and energy categories, the PPI index increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 6.2% on a yearly basis. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the PPI index rose 0.3% for the month and 4.9% from a year ago.
Tuesday December 13 – CPI (MoM) (November)
Thursday December 15 – Retail Sales (MoM) (November)
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