Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 12/01/2023

December 1, 2023 Printer Friendly Printer Friendly


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The U.S. Census Bureau reported new home sales decreased 5.6% in October. New home sales for the previous month were downwardly revised to 719,000 from 759,000. Monthly sales increased in the Northeast (+13.2%) and South (+2.1%), while the West (-23.3%) and Midwest (-16.4%) saw decreases. October’s seasonally adjusted rate was 679,000 units, showing a (+17.7%) increase year over year. The regional year over year figures were all in positive territory, led by the South (+19.2%), West (+18.9%), Northeast (+10.3%), and Midwest (+8.5%). The median new house price was down (-3.1%) month over month and (-17.6%) lower than last year at $409,300, this is the lowest reading since August 2021. The average sale price was (-10.3%) lower than last year at $487,000. Sixty-eight percent of new homes sold were in the $150,000 to $499,999 price range. There were 439,000 new homes for sale at the end of October, up from a revised 433,000 units in September. This represents a 7.8 months’ supply at the current sales rate, up from a revised 7.2 months’ reading for the previous month. Year over year, new homes for sale were down (-5.8%). Houses under construction made up roughly 60% of the October new home sales, with homes not started accounting for roughly 25%, and completed homes accounting for about 18%.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® increased in November following three straight monthly declines to 102.0 (1985=100). The headline reading is up from October’s downwardly revised 99.1, which originally reported in at 102.6. The uptick was driven primarily by consumer optimism related to short-term expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions rose to 77.8 from an upwardly revised 73.7 the previous month; 17.3% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, up from 15.5%; 16.1% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, up from 15.3%; and 17.2% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, up from 15.6%. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said. “Buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances trended downward on a six-month basis—perhaps reflecting the impact of elevated interest rates”. The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers’ sentiment toward current business conditions and the labor market, declined to 138.2 from a downwardly revised 138.6. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly more positive as 19.8% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 18.3% in October. However, 19.5% said business conditions were “bad,” up from 18.8%. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was mixed with 39.3% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from 37.9% in October. However, 15.4% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 14.1%.

The Commerce Department’s second estimate on the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reported the economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2%. The acceleration bettered the first estimate of (+4.9%). A primary contributor to the headline reading was an upward revision in nonresidential fixed investment, which includes structures, equipment, and intellectual property from (-0.1%) to (+1.3%). Government consumption expenditures and gross investment also contributed with an upward revision from (+4.6%) to (+5.5%). Imports, which act as a drag on the GDP figure were revised lower from (+5.7%) to (+5.2%). Consumer spending offset some of the gains with a downward revision, showing (+3.6%), as compared to a (+4.0%) initial estimate. Spending on goods was revised down from (+4.8%) to (+4.7%), while spending on services was revised down from (+3.6%) to (+3.0%).. The second estimate also includes an alternate measure of economic growth: Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which is a measure of the incomes earned and the costs incurred in the production of gross domestic product. The GDI is the sum of all income across the economy. The second estimate showed the GDI increased (+1.5%), besting Q2’s (+0.5%).

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday December 5 – Services PMI (November)

Friday December 8 – Unemployment Rate (November)

Earnings Calendar:


Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
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