Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 11/17/2023

November 17, 2023 Printer Friendly Printer Friendly


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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index was unchanged in October, this follows seasonally adjust readings of (+0.4%), (+0.6%), and (+0.2%) over the previous months. The all items index has increased (+3.2%) over the last 12 months. This compares to (+3.7%), (+3.7%) and (+3.2%) over the previous months. The shelter index which makes up about one-third of the CPI weighting continued to rise (+0.3%) but was offset by a (-5.0%) drop in the gasoline index. The shelter index has now increased 42 consecutive months. The energy index declined (-2.5%) and follows a (+1.5%) reading the previous month, with decreases coming from all energy sub-indexes, except for the indexes for natural gas (+1.2%) and electricity (+0.3%). The food index increased (+0.3%) from a (+0.2%) reading over the previous 3-months. Core CPI inflation which excludes food and energy increased (+0.2%) in October and follows readings of (+0.3%), (+0.3%), and (+0.2%) over the previous months. The annual rate of core CPI inflation is now at (+4.0%) as compared to (+4.1%), (+4.3%), and (+4.7%) over the previous months, it is the smallest 12-month change since September 2021. The shelter index increased (+6.7%) year-over-year, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in Core CPI. Other indexes with significant increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+19.2%), recreation (+3.2%), personal care (+6.0%), and household furnishings and operations (+1.7%).

The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales decreased (-0.1%) to $705.0B in October, this follows an upwardly revised (+0.9%) from (+0.7%) increase for September. This marks the first decrease after six consecutive monthly increases. Retail sales are up (+2.5%) year over year. Total sales for August 2023 through October 2023 were up (+3.1%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, contributing to the decline was a (-1.0%) drop in sales of autos and parts. Excluding auto sales, retail sales were up (+0.1%). Spending was mixed with increases in personal care (+1.1%), electronics & appliances (+0.6%), food & beverage (+0.6%), restaurants (+0.3%), and internet retail (+0.2%) offsetting decreases in home furnishings (-2.0%), miscellaneous retail (-1.7%), sporting & hobby (-0.8%), building materials (-0.3%), gas stations (-0.3%), and general merchandise (-0.2%). Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services increased (+0.2%) in October. September’s core retail sales were revised up to show sales increasing (+0.7%) instead of (+0.6%).

The U.S. Census Bureau reported new residential building permits were up (+1.1%) in October to a seasonally adjusted 1.471M, (-4.4%) below the October 2022 rate of 1.555M. Single-family permits were up (+0.5%) to 968K from a downwardly revised September figure of 963K. Regionally single-family permits were mixed with readings of Northeast (+7.4%), West (+2.0%), Midwest (-1.7%), and South (-0.2%). Permits for 2 to 4 units reported up (+2.0%), and 5 units or more were up (+2.2%). Privately-owned housing starts increased (+1.9%) to 1.372M, from a downwardly revised September estimate of 1.346M, and (-4.2%) below the October 2022 rate of 1.432M. Single-family starts were up (+0.2%) to 970K as single-family homebuilding increased in the Northeast (+12.0%) and West (+12.3%), while the South (-4.9%) and Midwest (-0.9%) both saw decreases. Housing starts for 5 units or more increased (+4.9%) to 382K from a downwardly revised September figure of 364K and are down (-31.8%) year over year. Privately-owned housing completions reported at 1.410M, down (-4.6%) from September’s upwardly revised 1.478M reading, and up (+4.6%) over October 2022. Single-family housing completions reported in at 993K, a (-0.9%) decrease from Septembers ’s upwardly revised rate of 1.002M, up (+2.0%) from October 2022.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday November 21 – Existing Home Sales (MoM) (October)

Wednesday November 22 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (October)

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