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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cut its forecast for 2023 U.S. crude output growth by 21%. U.S. crude production is expected to increase by about 480,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.31 million bpd, down from the original 610,000 bpd growth forecast of 12.36 million bpd. The EIA also revised OPEC production forecasts down to 28.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2022 from an average of 29.2 million bpd in the third quarter. The EIA raised its 2022 and 2023 forecasts for heating oil prices, heating oil is expected to average $4.79 a gallon this year — up 4.8% from the previous $4.57 forecast. Next year heating oil is expected to be at $4.63 up 9.9% from the previous $4.21 forecast. Conversely natural gas prices are expected to drop, natural gas is expected to be at $6.49 per million British thermal units in 2022, down 5.8% from the previous forecast of $6.88. Next year natural gas is expected to be at $5.46, down 5.4% from the previous forecast of $5.77. The EIA also raised its 2023 price forecast for WTI crude (+0.9%) to $89.33 a barrel and Brent crude (+0.8%) to $95.33 a barrel.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October. Over the last 12 months, the all items index is up 7.7% before seasonal adjustment as compared to 8.2% in September. This is the first time since February that the annual increase in the CPI was reported below 8%. The CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, the fastest rate since 1981. On a monthly basis, the all items index is up (+0.4%), equaling September’s reading, and as compared to (+0.1%) in August. The index for shelter (+0.8%) contributed to over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline (+4.0%) and food (+0.6%) also increasing. The energy index rose 1.8%, this follows four consecutive months of declines. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs increased a seasonally adjusted (+0.3%) in October, a decrease from September’s (+0.6%) reading. Contributing to the increase were the indexes for shelter (+0.8%), motor vehicle insurance (+1.7%), recreation (+0.7%), new vehicles (+0.4%), and personal care (+0.5%). Indexes that saw declines included medical care (-0.5%), used cars and trucks (-2.4%), apparel (-0.7%), and airfares (-1.1%). The annual rate of core CPI inflation is now at 6.3%, just below September’s 40-year record high of 6.6%. The shelter index is up 6.9% year over year and accounts for about 40% of the total increase in Core CPI.
The Labor Department reported an increase in initial jobless claims for the week ending November 5th. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported in at 225,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was slightly revised (+1,000) to 218,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 218,750 an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. Of the 53 states and U.S. territories that report jobless claims, 38 reported increases, and 15 reported declines. California (+3,992), Kentucky (+3,453), and Texas (+1,957) led with the largest increase in initial claims. Oregon (-1,278) and Florida (-717) led with the most decreases. For the week ending October 29th, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as the insured unemployment rate was 0.9%, unchanged from the prior week. Continuing claims reported at 1.263M up 23,190 from the previous week’s level. For the week ending October 22nd, 1.263M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 12,522 from the previous week’s level. There were 2.566M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.
Tuesday November 15 – PPI (MoM) (October)
Wednesday November 16 – Retail Sales (MoM) (October)
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