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The US Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil stockpiles increased by 3.3M barrels to 434.1M barrels (6% below the five-year average) for the week ending October 29th. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.0M barrels per day, a decrease of 25K barrels per day as compared to the previous week’s average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5M barrels (3% below the five-year average,) while distillate inventories increased by 2.2M barrels (5% below the five-year average). Refineries operated at 86.3% of their operable capacity, as gasoline production increased to an average of 10.2M barrels per day. Crude oil imports came in at 6.2M barrels per day, a decrease of 83K barrels per day as compared to the previous week. Crude oil imports averaged about 6.1M barrels per day over the last four weeks, 14.9% more than the same period last year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.6M barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4M barrels a day, up 7.9% year over year. Jet fuel product supplied reported up 44.5% as compared to the same four-week period last year.
The Federal Reserve announced plans to trim its bond-buying program by $15 billion a month in mid-November. The FOMC said it would lower its monthly purchase of long-term Treasury bonds by $10B a month and its monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities by $5B a month, the total November purchase will drop to $105B. The Fed’s decision comes – “in light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee’s goals since last December.” The FOMC implied that the reduction will likely be maintained well into 2022, but that it is prepared to adjust according to changes in the economic outlook. The Fed left its benchmark interest rate at near-zero percent as it continues its efforts to bolster a post-pandemic economic recovery. The Fed is not expected to hike interest rates until after tapering has run its course.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% in October as 531,000 jobs were added, this follows September upwardly revised 4.8% and 312,000 jobs. The number of unemployed decreased to 7.4M in October. Leisure and hospitality added 164K jobs and is down some 1.4M jobs over February 2020. Professional Services reported (+100K) for October, (-215K) since February 2020. Manufacturing came in at (+60K), helped by gains in motor vehicle and parts (+28K), and is down (-270K) over February 2020. Transportation and warehousing reported (+54K), showing a (+149K) increase over February 2020. Education reported decreases in both local (-43K) and state (-22K). Overall education jobs are down with private (-148K), state (-205K), and local (-370K) as compared to their pre-pandemic levels. Hourly wages reported in at $30.96 per hour, up 0.4% for the month, and 4.9% year over year. The 4.9% increase in wages is the fastest since the government implemented new tracking measures in 2006. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) dropped by 357K to 2.3M and is 1.2M higher than in February 2020. Long-term unemployed accounted for 31.6% of the 7.4M unemployed in October. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.6% as 104,000 joined the labor force, participation remains down from 63.3% in February 2020.
Tuesday November 9 – Producer Price Index (Mom) (October)
Friday November 12 – JOLTs Job Openings (September)