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The Census Bureau reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales increased to $732.0 billion in August, a (+0.6%) increase; this follows an upwardly revised (+0.6%) gain for July. Retail sales were up (+5.0%) year over year. Total sales for June 2025 through August 2025 were up (+4.5%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Strong results in nonstore retailers (+2.0%) and clothing & accessories stores (+1.0%) were the main drivers of the monthly growth. Excluding sales at motor vehicle, parts, and gasoline stations, sales were up (+0.7%). Miscellaneous store retailers (+10.7%) led the way in annual sales increases, while building materials (-2.3%) posted the largest year-over-year decline. On a monthly basis, department stores (-0.8%) and home furnishings (-0.3%) recorded declines. Food services & drinking places, the only service category, were up (+0.7%) for the month and (+6.5%) year over year. Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services, rose (+0.7%) and follow a (+0.4%) reading in July. Core Retail sales were up (+4.9%) year over year.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to a range of 4.0% to 4.25%. The Committee stated that “growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year” and that “job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low“. The FOMC’s latest quarterly economic projections show that the median forecast for GDP growth in 2025 is 1.6%, which is higher than the 1.4% forecast in June. The median unemployment rate projection for 2025 remained unchanged from June at 4.5%. Meanwhile, the median forecast for PCE inflation in 2025 remained at 3.0%, and core PCE inflation remained at 3.1%, both unchanged from the June projections. The median federal funds rate projection was lowered from the June forecast for all years: 3.6% for 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for 2027.
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims decreased 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ending September 13. The four-week moving average fell to 240,000, down 750 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 194,478 in the week ending September 13, marking a 5.0% decrease as compared to the prior week. Twenty-two states and U.S. territories reported declines in unemployment claims, while thirty-one saw increases. For the week ending September 6, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 1.3%. Total jobless claims reached 1,920,000, which is 7,000 lower than the previous week’s downwardly revised figure. For the week ending August 30, 1,834,450 people received unemployment benefits through state or federal programs, reflecting a decrease of 90,886 from the week before. During the same period in 2024, there were 1,727,381 weekly claims.
Wednesday September 24 – New Home Sales (August)
Thursday September 25 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (August)
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