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The seasonally adjusted annual rate of personal income rose to $17,572.4 billion (+0.4%) in June, with after tax disposable personal income (DPI) rising to $15,520.4 billion (+0.4%). The savings rate remained steady at 6.8%, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose to $14,470.8 billion (+0.4%), with the bulk of that spending going toward services ($9,591.9 billion, +0.6%). On a yearly basis, DPI rose +3.1% and PCE increased for durable goods by +6.6%, nondurable goods by +2.6%, and services by +2.2%. The PCE price index was up +0.1% (+2.2% Y/Y), as a +0.2% (+2.6% Y/Y) increase in service prices was offset by a -0.1% (+1.4% Y/Y) drop in goods prices. Energy prices dropped -0.1% for the month, but were up +13.1% for the year, and core PCE inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was up +0.1% for the month, and +1.9% for the year.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-3/4% – 2%, but upgraded their assessment of economic activity from “solid” in their June report to “strong”. The Implementation Note issued with the meeting announcement included an additional directive for normalizing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet: “to continue rolling over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing during June that exceeds $18 billion, and to continue reinvesting the amount of principal payments … received during June that exceeds $12 billion.” For July, the balance sheet normalization directive reverts to the previous policy of rolling over matured securities that exceed $24 billion and reinvesting matured securities that exceed $16 billion.
There were 157,000 jobs created in July, and the number of jobs created in May and June were revised upwards to 268,000 (+24,000) and 248,000 (35,000) respectively, bringing the 3-month average jobs gain to 224,000/month. The unemployment rate edged downward to 3.9% from 4.0%, and the more comprehensive U-6 measure of total unemployed dropped from 7.8% to 7.5%, with the workforce participation rate remaining steady at 62.9%. The average workweek decreased -0.1 hours to 34.5 hours, and average hourly earnings increased $0.07 to $27.05/hour, bringing the yearly increase in earnings to $0.71/hour (+2.7%). For production/non-supervisory employees, earnings increased $0.03 in July to $22.65/hour. Jobs were created in professional and business services (+51,000 in July, +518,000 /12 months), manufacturing (+37,000 in July, +327,000 / 12 months), health care (+34,000 in July, +286,000 /12 months), restaurants (+26,000 in July, +203,000 /12 months), and construction (+19,000 in July, +308,000 /12 months).
Thursday August 9 – Producer Price Index – Final Demand (PPI-FD)
Friday August 10 – Consumer Price Index