Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 07/25/2025

Checking Seasonality and Monthly Returns

We have created a help section called How To which provides concise, direct recipes for performing common tasks in Stock Rover.

The How To posts can quickly show how you accomplish things and help you use Stock Rover more productively. Today we want to highlight Checking Seasonality and Monthly Returns.

Economy

The National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing-home sales decreased by 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million, unchanged Y/Y. Single-family home sales declined 3.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.57 million, increasing 0.6% Y/Y. Existing condominium and co-op sales were flat month-over-month at an annual rate of 360,000 units, down 5.3% Y/Y. Total housing inventory stood at 1.53 million units, down 0.6% from May and up 15.9% Y/Y. Properties typically remained on the market for 27 days in June, up from 22 days one year ago. This left unsold inventory at a 4.7-month supply rate, up from 4.6 months in May and 4.0 months one year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types reached $435,300, rising 2.0% Y/Y and marking 24 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed record-high home prices to years of housing undersupply and lagging construction, which continue to limit first-time homebuyer participation despite some signs of temporary oversupply in certain markets. As of July 17, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.75%.

The S&P Global US Flash PMI® report showed a strong pickup in US business activity in July, as the S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI Composite Output Index rose to 54.6 from June’s 52.9 — the highest reading in seven months. The Flash U.S. Services PMI Business Activity Index similarly climbed to 55.2 from 52.9, also reaching a seven-month high, driven by robust domestic demand. However, the Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index dipped to 51.2 from 53.1, while the Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.5 from 52.9 — a seven-month low — signaling renewed factory weakness. The contrast between sectors reflected strength in services offsetting a downturn in manufacturing, which saw declining orders and job losses. Inflationary pressures mounted, with tariffs and wage growth driving one of the steepest increases in input and output prices in three years. Export demand fell for the third time in four months, while business confidence declined further amid concerns over tariffs and federal spending cuts. Employment overall rose for the fifth consecutive month, though manufacturing payrolls slipped for the first time since April.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new-home sales showed a modest increase of 0.6% in June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, following a revised rate of 623,000 in May. Sales were down 6.6% year-over-year. Regionally, new home sales saw increases in the Midwest (+6.3%) and South (+5.1%), while declining in the Northeast (-27.6%) and West (-8.4%). Year-to-date, an estimated 350,000 new homes have been sold in 2025, a decrease of 4.3% from the prior year. The average sales price for a newly constructed home decreased to $501,000 in June from a revised $511,500 in May. Similarly, the median new home sales price declined to $401,800 in June from a revised $422,700 in May. The inventory of new homes for sale, seasonally adjusted, stood at 511,000 units, representing a 9.8-month supply, an uptick from the revised 9.7-month supply reported in May.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday July 30 – GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Friday August 1 – Unemployment Rate (July)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)	Boeing (BA)	Meta Platforms (META)	AAPL (AAPL)	Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
Enterprise Prods Partners (EPD)	Starbucks (SBUX)	Microsoft (MSFT)	Amazon (AMZN)	Chevron (CVX)