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The Commerce Department reported a 0.9% drop in advance U.S. retail and food services sales in May, bringing the total to $715.4 billion. This follows a downwardly revised 0.1% decline in April. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales climbed 3.3%, while the March–May period saw a 4.5% gain compared to the same period a year ago. The largest declines came from motor vehicle and parts dealers, down 3.5%, followed by building and garden supplies, down 2.7%, and gasoline stations, down 2.0%. Meanwhile, restaurant sales—the only service category—fell by 0.9%, but remains up 5.3% from the previous year. Miscellaneous store retailers posted the strongest gain, rising 2.9%, followed by sporting and hobby stores, up 1.3%, home furnishings, up 1.2%, and internet retailers, up 0.9%. Excluding the motor vehicle and parts sector, retail sales were down 0.3%. When gasoline stations are also excluded, the decrease was 0.8%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it will leave the federal funds rate within a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the same level as in May, March, January, and December. The June FOMC statement softened its tone from the previous month, stating that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated,” and that “The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid.” The FOMC’s latest quarterly economic projections indicate that GDP growth is expected at 1.4% in 2025, down from March’s 1.7% forecast; the unemployment rate was raised to 4.5% from 4.4%. The PCE inflation forecast was lifted to 3.0% from 2.7%, while core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.8%. The FOMC kept its forecast for two cuts in 2025, with the median federal funds rate projected at 3.9% for 2025, 3.6% for 2026, and 3.4% for 2027.
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims decreased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ending June 14th. The four-week moving average rose to 245,500, up 4,750 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average. This marks the highest moving average since August 19, 2023. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 235,709, marking a 4.1% decrease compared to the prior week. Thirty-eight states and U.S. territories reported declines in unemployment claims, while 15 saw increases. For the week ending June 7th, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 1.3%. Total jobless claims reached 1.945M, which is 6,000 lower than the previous week’s downwardly revised figure. For the week ending May 31st, 1.854M people received unemployment benefits through state or federal programs, reflecting an increase of 70,748 from the week before. During the same period in 2024, there were 1.731M weekly claims.
Tuesday June 24 – Consumer Confidence (June)
Thursday June 26 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
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