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The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods fell (-6.3%) to $296.3 billion in April, ending a four-month growth streak. The drop was mainly due to transportation equipment, which declined (-17.1%) to $98.8 billion. Excluding transportation, orders rose slightly (+0.2%), while excluding defense, they fell (-7.5%). Shipments increased (+0.4%) to $300.6 billion, led by a (+1.4%) gain in transportation equipment. Unfilled orders were flat (+0.0%) at $1,408.5 billion, and inventories edged up (+0.1%) to $586.7 billion, both driven by modest gains in transportation. Nondefense capital goods orders dropped sharply (-19.1%) to $87.3 billion, primarily driven by a significant decline in commercial aircraft orders, while shipments rose (+3.5%). Defense capital goods orders jumped (+30.5%) to $14.1 billion, with shipments (+1.0%) to $13.9 billion, unfilled orders (+0.1%) to $198.9 billion, and inventories (+1.0%) to $26.6 billion all posting modest gains.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rebounded in May, increasing by 12.3 points to 98.0, following five consecutive months of decline and signaling renewed optimism among consumers, especially after the May 12 announcement of a partial pause on tariffs for Chinese imports. The Present Situation Index®, which assesses current business and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index®, which gauges short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose 17.4 points to 72.8—though still below the 80-point threshold that often signals a recession is coming. The rebound was broad-based across age, income, and political groups, with notable gains in stock price and income expectations. While consumers were less negative about future business and jobs, views on current job availability declined for the fifth month in a row. Affordability remained a key worry even as inflation concerns eased slightly. Consumers showed stronger intentions to save and spend, with increased plans for major purchases and services.
The Commerce Department’s second estimate on the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reported the economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2%, a slight upward adjustment from the -0.3% in the advance estimate. This marks a sharp reversal from the 2.4% growth reported in Q4 2024. The primary factors contributing to the contraction were a significant increase in imports and a reduction in government expenditures, which collectively outweighed positive contributions from investment, consumer spending, and exports. Consumer spending registered a 1.2% gain, a downward revision from the previously reported 1.8%, with both goods and services categories revised lower. Gross private domestic investment saw a substantial rise of 24.4%, driven by growth in both private inventories and fixed investment. Conversely, government spending decreased by 0.7%, largely attributable to a 4.6% reduction in federal outlays. The trade deficit expanded considerably as imports climbed by 42.6%, while exports advanced only 2.4%. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 3.3%, while the PCE price index held at 3.6%. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) was revised slightly lower to 3.4%.
Tuesday June 3 – Factory Orders (MoM) (April)
Friday June 6 – Unemployment Rate (May)
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