Rover's Weekly Market Brief - 04/07/2023

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Economy

The ISM® (Institute for Supply Management®) Manufacturing PMI® reported in at 46.3% for March as business activity fell 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, A value below 50% is indicative of a shrinking economy. “This is the fifth month of contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, none were in growth territory. This month, the PMI® registered its lowest reading since May 2020 (43.5%)” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the ISM® Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only petroleum & coal products and machinery, recorded growth in March. All three sub-indices – new orders, prices, and employment reported below 50. The index for new orders contracted for the seventh straight month tumbling 2.7 percentage points to 44.3%. The Prices Index which measures what companies pay for raw materials and other supplies eased down 2.1 percentage points to 49.2%. The Employment Index, declined 2.2 percentage points to 46.9%. The Backlog of Orders Index declined 1.2 percentage points to 43.9% and has now contracted for the sixth consecutive month following 27 months of expansion.

The U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS reported 9.9 million job openings as of the last day of February, 632,000 lower than January’s downwardly revised 10.6 million reading. This is the first reading in 9 months where job openings were reported below the 10 million level. Industries contributing to the decrease included professional and business services (-278,000), health care and social assistance (-150,000), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-145,000). Job openings increased in construction (+129,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+38,000). The number of people who voluntarily left their jobs increased slightly (+146,000) to 4.0 million from the 21-month low of 3.9 million in January. The number of people who quit their jobs for other opportunities made up 2.6% of the workforce in February, little changed from the previous month. Quits increased in professional and business services (+115,000), accommodation and food services (+93,000), wholesale trade (+31,000), and educational services (+18,000). The number of hires decreased slightly (-164,000) to 6.2 million in February. The hiring rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.0%. There were 1.7 available jobs for each unemployed person in February, down from 1.9 in January.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 236,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% in March from 3.6% the previous month. January and February’s employment readings were revised for a combined (-17,000) jobs. The number of unemployed workers dropped slightly to 5.8 million. Leisure and hospitality added (+72,000) jobs, followed by government (+47,000), professional and business services (+39,000), health care (+34,000), and transportation and warehousing (+10,000). Employment declined in retail trade (-15,000). Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased (+172,000) to 1.6M, and the number of reentrants to the labor force declined (-182,000) to 1.7M. The labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.6% from 62.5%, leaving it still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% in March. At $33.18 average hourly earnings are up 4.2% from a year ago.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday April 12 – CPI (MoM) (March)

Friday April 14 – Retail Sales (MoM) (March)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Tilray Brands (TLRY)	Albertsons Companies (ACI)	Pure Cycle (PCYO)	Delta Air Lines (DAL)	JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Pricesmart (PSMT)	CarMax (KMX)	Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH)	Progressive (PGR)	Wells Fargo (WFC)