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In October, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® slipped by 1.0 point to 94.6 following an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The slight decline reflected weaker expectations for future business and labor market conditions, even as views of current conditions strengthened modestly. The Present Situation Index rose 1.8 points to 129.3, signaling a rebound in consumers’ assessments of business and job availability, while the Expectations Index fell 2.9 points to 71.5—remaining below the 80 threshold that typically signals a potential recession. Consumers continued to express concern over inflation, with 12-month expectations increasing to 5.9% from 5.8% in September. Sentiment toward jobs and income also softened slightly, as fewer consumers anticipated income gains and more expected worsening job prospects. Plans to purchase cars increased, particularly for used vehicles, while home-buying intentions weakened. Meanwhile, expectations for the upcoming holiday season suggest lower spending, with consumers emphasizing value-driven purchases amid price pressures.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it had decided to lower the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking its second rate cut of 2025. The Committee noted that economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace, that job gains have slowed, and that the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. While inflation has risen since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated, the FOMC judged that downside risks to employment have increased in recent months and reiterated that it remains “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.” In addition to the rate cut, the Fed announced that it will end the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1, 2025, effectively ending its quantitative tightening program.
The Chicago Business Barometer™, which tracks business conditions across the manufacturing and service sectors in the Chicago area, declined to 40.6 in September from 41.5 in August, indicating a continued contraction in regional activity. The index has now remained below the 50 threshold for twenty-two consecutive months, underscoring persistent weakness in demand and output. The decline was driven primarily by a sharp fall in New Orders (-7.0 points) and softer readings for Supplier Deliveries (-6.4 points) and Employment (-4.1 points)—with the latter reaching its lowest level since June 2009. The share of firms reporting reduced payrolls was the highest since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Offsetting these declines were modest improvements in Production (+3.8 points), which rose for the first time in six months, and Order Backlogs (+3.3 points). Inventories weakened notably (-7.5 points), while Prices Paid eased slightly (-0.4 points) to the lowest level since January.
Wednesday November 5 – ADP Employment Report (October)
Friday November 7 – Consumer Credit (September)
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