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Economy
The Chicago Business Barometer (also known as the Chicago PMI), which tracks regional manufacturing and service activity, fell [2] to 52.8 in March, down 4.9 points from the prior month after three consecutive increases. Despite the decline, the index remained above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction for a third straight month, indicating continued but slower growth. The overall decrease was mainly driven by weakness in Employment (-12.8 points), along with declines in Production (-9.3 points), reflecting fewer firms reporting higher output, and New Orders (-7.8 points), though new orders remained in expansionary territory. While Order Backlogs (+6.4 points) and Supplier Deliveries (+4.9 points) provided some support, both reaching their highest levels in several months, these gains were not enough to offset the broader slowdown. Prices Paid rose (+3.4 points), suggesting renewed input cost pressures, with respondents citing higher metals prices and geopolitical tensions as key factors.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported [3] advance U.S. retail and food services sales were $738.4 billion in February 2026, up (+0.6%) from the prior month; this follows a downwardly revised decline of (-0.1%) in January. Total retail and food services sales were up (+3.7%) year over year, while sales for the December 2025 through February 2026 period increased (+3.1%) from the same period a year earlier. Retail sales, which are primarily goods and are not adjusted for inflation, showed a broadly positive monthly trend, led by gains in health & personal care stores (+2.3%), clothing & clothing accessories stores (+2.0%), and motor vehicle & parts dealers (+1.2%), while general merchandise stores were flat (0.0%) and both furniture & home furnishings stores (-1.0%) and food & beverage stores (-1.0%) declined. On an annual basis, sporting goods & hobby stores (+11.3%), miscellaneous store retailers (+10.2%), and nonstore retailers (+7.5%) posted the strongest gains, helping to support overall growth.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported [4] that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, while the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3% and the labor force participation rate edged down to 61.9%. The number of long-term unemployed was little changed at 1.8 million but is up by 322,000 over the past year, accounting for 25.4% of all unemployed workers. Job gains were concentrated in health care (+76,000), construction (+26,000), and transportation and warehousing (+21,000), while federal government employment continued to decline (-18,000) and financial activities (-15,000) also posted losses. Since peaking in October 2024, federal employment has fallen by 355,000, or 11.8%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.09 to $37.38, representing a 3.5% increase over the past year, while revisions to January and February combined left employment 7,000 lower than previously reported.
Upcoming Economic Reports:
Wednesday April 8 – FOMC Minutes (March)
Friday April 10 – CPI (MoM) (March)
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