Rover’s Weekly Market Brief – 02/13/2026

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Economy

The Census Bureau reported ^[2] that advance U.S. retail and food services sales totaled $735.0 billion in December, essentially unchanged (0.0%) from November, following an unrevised (+0.6%) increase the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, total sales rose (+2.4%), with retail trade up (+2.1%). Beneath the flat headline, category performance was mixed: nonstore retailers edged higher (+0.1%) on the month and remained a source of strength year over year (+5.3%), while gasoline stations (+0.3%) and building materials dealers (+1.2%) posted modest monthly gains. These increases were offset by declines in motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.2%) and furniture and home furnishings stores (-0.9%), the latter down (-5.6%) from a year earlier. Food services and drinking places slipped slightly (-0.1%) for the month but rose (+4.7%) year over year. Core retail sales were flat in December and up (+3.5%) from a year ago, pointing to stable but subdued underlying consumer demand.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported ^[3] that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, while the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3%, with 7.4 million people unemployed, up from 4.0% and 6.9 million a year earlier. Job gains were led by health care (+82,000), social assistance (+42,000), and construction (+33,000), while employment declined in federal government (-34,000) and financial activities (-22,000); since peaking in October 2024, federal government employment is down 327,000, or 10.9%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.4% to $37.17, a 3.7% rise over the past year. The number of long-term unemployed was little changed at 1.8 million, accounting for 25.0% of total unemployment. Revisions to November and December data showed employment was 17,000 lower than previously reported.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported ^[4] that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.3% increase in December. The all items index increased 2.4% over the past year before seasonal adjustment, slowing from a 2.7% annual pace in December. January’s monthly gain was led by a 0.2% rise in the shelter index, which was the largest contributor to the overall increase. The food index also advanced 0.2% for the month, with food at home up 0.2% and food away from home rising 0.1%. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.5% in January, as gasoline prices fell 3.2% and electricity edged down 0.1%, partially offset by a 1.0% increase in natural gas; energy prices were down 0.1% year-over-year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) increased 0.3% in January and rose 2.5% over the past 12 months, slowing from a 2.6% annual pace in December. Categories posting notable annual gains included personal care (+5.4%), household furnishings and operations (+3.9%), medical care (+3.2%), shelter (+3.0%), and recreation (+2.5%).

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday February 18 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (December)

Friday February 20 – GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Bridgestone (BRDCY)	Medtronic (MDT)	Carvana (CVNA)	Walmart (WMT)	PPL (PPL)
Sonoco Prods (SON)	Amrize (AMRZ)	Occidental Petrolium (OXY)	Alibaba Gr Hldgs (BABA)	Lamar Advertising (LMAR)