Rover’s Weekly Market Brief – 12/05/2025

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Economy

The November ISM® (Institute for Supply Management®) Manufacturing PMI® reported ^[3] at 48.2%, marking a 0.5-percentage-point decline from October’s reading of 48.7% and extending the sector’s contraction to a ninth consecutive month. The New Orders Index weakened further to 47.4%, down 2 percentage points from October, signaling a faster pace of contraction. In contrast, the Production Index returned to expansion at 51.4%, rising 3.2 percentage points from the prior month. The Employment Index continued to contract for the tenth straight month, falling 2 percentage points to 44%. The Prices Index indicated rising raw materials costs for the 14th month, edging up to 58.5% from 58%. Supplier Deliveries improved notably, with the index dropping to 49.3%, reflecting faster deliveries after three months of slower performance. Inventories contracted at a slower rate, climbing 3.1 percentage points to 48.9%. Both the New Export Orders Index (46.2%) and the Imports Index (48.9%) remained in contraction, though each posted modest gains compared to October.

The ADP National Employment Report® showed ^[4] that private-sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in November, marking a broad-based slowdown across much of the labor market. Small businesses led the decline with a loss of 120,000 positions, while medium and large firms added 51,000 and 39,000 jobs, respectively. Goods-producing industries weakened notably, with manufacturing down 18,000 and construction off 9,000, though natural resources and mining added 8,000. In the service sector, education and health services (+33,000) and leisure and hospitality (+13,000) posted gains, while professional and business services (-26,000), information (-20,000), and financial activities (-9,000) all contracted. Regionally, hiring was strongest in the West (+67,000) and Midwest (+45,000), while the Northeast (-100,000) and South (-43,000) saw sizable losses. Pay growth continued to ease, with job-stayers seeing a 4.4% annual increase and job-switchers gaining 6.3%, pointing to a cooling wage environment alongside softer hiring.

The Commerce Department reported ^[5] factory orders edged up (+0.2%) in September to $612.6 billion, marking a second consecutive monthly increase following August’s revised (+1.3%) gain. Durable goods orders rose (+0.5%) to $313.7 billion, led by a (+0.4%) uptick in transportation equipment to $110.7 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased a modest (+0.2%). Nondurable goods orders slipped (-0.1%) to $298.9 billion. Shipments were virtually unchanged at $606.7 billion after a (-0.3%) decline in August, with durable goods up (+0.1%) and nondurables down (-0.1%). Inventories decreased slightly (-0.1%) to $946.8 billion, their second straight monthly decline. Unfilled orders continued to climb, rising (+0.7%) to $1,489.8 billion—now higher in fourteen of the past fifteen months. Core capital goods orders (non-defense, excluding aircraft) rose 0.9% in September, and core capital goods shipments also increased by 0.9%.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday December 10 – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thursday December 11 – Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Bridgestone (BRDCY)	AutoZone (AZO)	Adobe (ADBE)	Broadcom (AVGO)	TerraVest Industries (TVK.TO)
Toll Brothers (TOL)	Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)	Oracle (ORCL)	Costco Wholesale (COST)	Vizsla Silver (VZLA)