Rover’s Weekly Market Brief – 11/21/2025

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Economy

The Commerce Department reported ^[2] factory orders rose (+1.4%) in August to $612.0 billion, rebounding after a revised (-1.3%) decline in July; year-to-date orders are up (+3.3%). The uptick was driven by durable goods orders, which increased (+2.9%) to $311.8 billion, led by a (+7.9%) surge in transportation equipment to $110.2 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders were nearly flat at (+0.1%). Nondurable goods orders edged down (-0.1%) to $300.3 billion. Shipments dipped (-0.1%) to $607.7 billion following a (+0.9%) gain in July, with durable goods down (-0.2%) and nondurables lower by (-0.1%). Inventories were virtually unchanged at $948.4 billion, marking increases in ten of the past eleven months. Unfilled orders continued their upward trend, rising (+0.6%) to $1.4787 trillion—now higher in thirteen of the past fourteen months. Core capital goods orders—non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—posted a modest (+0.4%) gain in August, while core capital goods shipments slipped slightly (-0.4%).

The minutes ^[3] from the October 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed a continued reassessment of risks amid a moderating economy, persistent inflation pressures, and emerging strains in money markets. The Committee lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3¾ to 4 percent, noting that job gains had slowed further and the unemployment rate had inched higher while remaining low by historical standards. Inflation was described as “somewhat elevated,” with the recent rise linked to lingering tariff effects and firmer core goods prices. Participants acknowledged increased downside risks to employment and signaled openness to additional rate cuts as policy moves toward a more neutral stance, while emphasizing the need to prevent inflation from settling above the 2 percent objective. Compared with the September meeting, the October minutes placed greater weight on tightening money market conditions and the approaching end of balance-sheet runoff, whereas the September minutes focused more on softening labor market data and the initial shift toward policy easing.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported ^[4] that nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September as the unemployment rate held at 4.4%, with the number of unemployed rising to 7.6 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.1%, and unemployment totaled 6.9 million. September’s figures were affected by the federal shutdown, which delayed publication and resulted in a higher-than-usual share of self-reported establishment data. Job gains were concentrated in health care (+43,000), food services and drinking places (+37,000), and social assistance (+14,000), while transportation and warehousing (-25,000) and the federal government (-3,000) posted notable declines. Most other major industries showed little change. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% to $36.67, up 3.8% over the past year. Meanwhile, the number of long-term unemployed held at 1.8 million—23.6% of all unemployed—compared with 1.6 million (23.4%) a year earlier. Revisions to July and August data showed that payrolls were 33,000 lower than previously reported.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday November 25 – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (October)

Wednesday November 26 – GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Agilent Technologies (A)	Analog Devices (ADI)	Deere (DE)	United Corp (UNC.TO)	Buckle (BKE)
Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO)	Dell Technologies (DELL)	Surmodics (SRDX)	Cracker Barrel Old (CBRL)	Frontline (FRO)