Rover’s Weekly Market Brief – 10/21/2022

Real World Screener Performance

During these unusual and difficult times in the markets, we thought it would be interesting to take an in-depth look at how 13 of Stock Rover’s most popular screeners are faring. Read our latest blog post ^[1] to see which screeners are performing well and which are performing poorly in the current market environment.

Economy

The U.S. Census Bureau reported housing starts dropped 8.1% ^[2] to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.439M units in September. The data for August was revised down to 1.566M units from the previously reported 1.575M units. Year-over-year housing starts are down 7.7%. Multi-unit starts led the way, declining by 13.1% to a rate of 530K units. Single-family housing starts decreased 4.7% to a rate of 892K units. New residential building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.542M units. New residential building permits are running 3.2 % below their September 2021 level. Single-family permits reported in at a rate of 872K units down 3.1% from August’s revised 900K, while multifamily permits increased 8.2% to a rate of 644K units. Regionally, only the Northeast (-9.4%) experienced a decline in overall new residential permitting. The Midwest (+4.0%), South (+3.1%), and West (+0.3%) all saw increases. At 1.427M, housing completions were 6.1% above August’s revised 1.345M units. Single-family housing completions reported in at 1.049M, 3.2% above August’s revised reading, while multifamily completions reported up 16.8% to 376K. The number of houses approved for construction but not yet started was flat at 291K units, and the backlog for single-family housing held steady at 144K.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Beige Book ^[3], which is used to gauge economic conditions for FOMC meetings, found that economic activity expanded modestly in September and October. Conditions were mixed with four districts reporting flat activity. Two districts reported declines, citing inflation, high interest rates, and supply chain issues as factors. Retail spending was also flat affected by lower discretionary spending. Auto dealers noted a pullback due to limited inventories, high vehicle prices, and rising interest rates. Travel and tourism, manufacturing, and nonfinancial services all painted a somewhat optimistic picture. Housing starts and sales slowed, however apartment leasing and rents remained high. Employment continued to rise at a modest pace. Overall labor market conditions were still tight, although half of the Districts did note an easing in hiring and retention difficulties. Price growth remained elevated, with some easing noted by several Districts. Looking ahead, the expectations are that price increases will moderate.

The Labor Department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims ^[4] for the week ending October 15th. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported in at 214,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 to 228,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 212,250 an increase of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. Of the 53 states and U.S. territories that report jobless claims, 38 reported declines, and 15 reported increases. Florida (-3,856), New York (2,963), and California (-2,354) saw the most decreases. Missouri (+1,763) led with the largest increase in initial claims. For the week ending October 8th, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as the insured unemployment rate was 1.0%, an increase of 0.1% from the prior week. Continuing claims reported at 1.385M up 21,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. The continuing claims’ 4-week moving average was 1,365M, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. For the week ending October 1st, 1.224M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, a decrease of 30,879, from the previous week’s level. There were some 3.279M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Wednesday October 26 – New Home Sales (September)

Thursday October 27 – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (September)

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Discover Financial (DFS)	Alphabet (GOOGL)	META (META)	Apple (AAPL)	Exxon Mobile (XOM)
Sun Communities (SUI)	Twitter (TWTR)	Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)	Intel (INTC)	Chevron (CVX)