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Advanced Screening Techniques
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Economy
The Commerce Department reported [8] that the goods and services deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, up $12.7 billion from July’s upwardly revised reading of $92.8 billion. The monthly increase reflected a $12.8 billion expansion in the goods deficit to $136.6 billion, alongside an increase of less than $0.1 billion in the services surplus to $31.0 billion. Imports rose by $17.2 billion to $420.8 billion, driven primarily by increases in industrial supplies and materials (+$9.1 billion) and capital goods (+$6.2 billion), including a $2.4 billion gain in semiconductors. The increase in imports outpaced a $4.5 billion rise in total exports to $315.2 billion, which saw positive contributions from nonmonetary gold (+$2.3 billion) and crude oil (+$2.0 billion). Despite the August widening, the year-to-date goods and services deficit remained 19.9% lower than the comparable period in 2025, reflecting a $267.7 billion increase in exports alongside a $129.5 billion rise in imports.
The Federal Reserve reported [9] in its September 15–16, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that policymakers unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, citing persistent inflation pressures driven by higher energy costs, the AI investment boom, and lingering tariffs alongside limited progress toward its 2.0% objective, even as economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions were characterized as stable and near maximum employment, supported by an unemployment rate of 4.1%, improving payroll gains, and broadly balanced risks to employment. Meanwhile, participants generally judged inflation risks to be tilted to the upside, with a majority expecting another rate increase by year-end, though they emphasized that future policy decisions would remain strictly dependent on incoming economic data and the evolving balance of risks.
The Federal Reserve reported [10] that consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.9% in August, slowing from a 4.1% gain in July. The monthly increase reflected a 4.2% decline in revolving credit, which includes credit card balances, following a 2.5% increase in July, alongside a 4.1% increase in nonrevolving credit, including auto and student loans. Total consumer credit outstanding rose to $5.20 trillion, with nonrevolving credit accounting for $3.84 trillion and revolving credit totaling $1.35 trillion. Among commercial bank terms of credit, average interest rates stood at 21.19% for all credit card plans, 22.36% for accounts assessed interest, 11.90% for 24-month personal loans, and 7.54% for 60-month new car loans.
Upcoming Economic Reports:
Wednesday October 14 – CPI MoM (September)
Thursday October 15 – PPI MoM (September)
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