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Economy
The EIA’s September 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts [3] a significant decline in Brent crude oil prices, with prices expected to average $68 per barrel in 2025 before dropping to $51 per barrel in 2026. This decline is driven by large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production. U.S. crude oil production is projected to be 13.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 13.3 million b/d in 2026. The U.S. average retail price for regular-grade gasoline is expected to drop to $3.10 per gallon in 2025, a 20-cent decline from the prior year, and then fall to an average of $2.90 per gallon in 2026. The Henry Hub natural gas price is forecast to rise from an August average of $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $3.70/MMBtu in late 2025 and $4.30/MMBtu next year. This price increase is due to relatively flat natural gas production amid a rise in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports. Total U.S. electricity generation is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and an additional 3.0% in 2026. The outlook was finalized before OPEC+ announced its plans to raise production on September 7.
The Labor Department reported [4] that the Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1% in August, seasonally adjusted, following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July and an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in June. Over the 12-month period ending in August, the PPI advanced 2.6% on an unadjusted basis. The August decline was driven largely by services, which accounted for most of the decrease, as prices for final demand services fell 0.2% while prices for final demand goods edged up 0.1%. Three-quarters of the services decline came from a 3.9% decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. Prices for transportation and warehousing services rose 0.9% and services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing increased 0.3%. On the goods side, prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3%, while food prices advanced 0.1% and energy prices slipped 0.4%. The core PPI—which excludes food, energy, and trade services—climbed 0.3%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the core PPI rose 2.8%, the largest annual gain since March 2025.
The Labor Department reported [5] that the Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August (seasonally adjusted), following a 0.2% rise in July. The all items index increased 2.9% (before seasonal adjustment) over the past year, up from 2.7% in July. August’s monthly increase was led by a 0.4% gain in the shelter index, which remained the largest contributor to the overall advance. The food index rose 0.5%, as food at home increased 0.6% and food away from home rose 0.3%. The energy index climbed 0.7%, with gasoline prices up 1.9%, electricity higher by 0.2%, and natural gas down 1.6%. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) increased 0.3%, matching July’s reading, and registered a 3.1% year-over-year gain. Categories showing notable annual increases included used cars and trucks (+6.0%), motor vehicle insurance (+4.7%), household furnishings (+3.9%), shelter (+3.6%), and medical care (+3.4%).
Upcoming Economic Reports:
Tuesday September 16 – Retail Sales (MoM) (August)
Wednesday September 17 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Earnings Calendar: