Rover’s Weekly Market Brief – 07/22/2022

New Watchlists – July 2022

We created a new set of watchlists that contain some interesting investment candidates. You can read about each of the new watchlists in our latest blog post ^[1]. There are also a companion set of screeners associated with each of the watchlists. Any of the new watchlists or screeners can be imported into your Stock Rover account from the Stock Rover Investor’s Library ^[2].

Economy

The U.S. Census Bureau reported housing starts dropped 2.0% ^[3] to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.559M units in June, the lowest level since September 2021. The data for May was revised up to 1.591M units from the previously reported 1.549M units. Single-family housing starts, which account for the majority share of homebuilding, fell 8.1% to a rate of 982K units. Meanwhile starts for housing projects with five units or more increased 15% to a rate of 568K units. New residential building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.685M units. New residential building permits are running 1.4% above their June 2021 level. Single-family permits were down 8.0% from May’s revised 1.051M, while multifamily permits increased 13.1% to 666K. Building permits saw increases in the Northeast (+18.0%) and West (+5.8%), while the Midwest (-15.7%) and South (-2.1%) saw declines. Single-family housing completions came in at 996K, 4.1% below May’s reading. Multifamily completions were down 5.4% to 366K. The number of houses approved for construction but not yet started increased 1.1% to 285K units, with the backlog for single-family housing dropping 1.3% to 147K.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 5.4% ^[4] in June to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.12M, down 14.2% as compared to June 2021, and a new low since June of 2020. Home sales have now dropped for five consecutive months. Sales of single-family homes fell to a 4.57M annual rate (-12.8% Y/Y) and existing condo sales dropped to a 550K annual rate (-9.8% Y/Y). Total housing inventory reported in at 1.26M, up 9.6% over May’s inventory (+2.4% Y/Y). Unsold inventory is at a 3.0-month supply, up from 2.6 months in May and 2.5 months in June 2021. Properties typically remained on the market for 14 days, down from May’s 16 days reading. Eighty-eight percent of the homes sold in June were on the market for less than a month. The median sales price of an existing home sold in June set yet another record at $416,000 (+13.4%Y/Y). The median existing single-family home price was $423,300 in June (+13.3% Y/Y) while the median existing condo price was $354,900 (+11.5% Y/Y). Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast were unchanged while the Midwest (-1.6%), West (-11.1%), and South (-6.2%) all saw declines.

The Labor Department reported an increase in initial jobless claims ^[5] for the week ending July 16th. This marks the third straight week of increase and the highest level in 8-months. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported in at 251,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 240,500 an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average. Massachusetts (+14,136) and California (+3,815) led the increase in initial claims, while New York (-7,059) and Ohio (-3,752) saw the most decreases. For the week ending July 9th, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as the insured unemployment rate was 1.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. Continuing claims were reported in at 1.384M down 51,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level. The continuing claims 4-week moving average was 1,353,250, an increase of 13,250 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

Tuesday July 26 – CB Consumer Confidence (July)

Wednesday July 27 – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Earnings Calendar:

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
RPM International (RPM)	Microsoft (MSFT)	Meta Platforms (META)	Apple (AAPL)	Proctor & Gamble (PG)
Whirlpool (WHR)	Alphabet (GOOGL)	Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY)	Pfizer (PFE)	Chevron (CVX)