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Guru Portfolio Updates
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 3.4%  in May to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.41M, down 8.6% as compared to May 2021. Home sales have now dropped for four consecutive months. Sales of single-family homes fell to a 4.80M annual rate (-7.7% Y/Y) and existing condo sales dropped to a 610K annual rate (-15.3% Y/Y). Total housing inventory reported in at 1.16M, up 12.6% over April’s inventory (-4.1% Y/Y). Unsold inventory is at a 2.6-month supply, up from 2.2 months in April and 2.5 months in May 2021. Properties typically remained on the market for 16 days, down from April’s 17 days reading. Eighty-eight percent of the homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month. The median sales price exceeded $400,000 for the first time increasing to $407,600 (+14.8% Y/Y). The median existing single-family home price was $414,200 in May (+14.6% Y/Y) while the median existing condo price was $355,700 (+14.8% Y/Y). Regionally only the Northeast (+1.5%) saw an increase, while existing-home sales dipped in the Midwest (-5.3%), West (-5.3%), and the South (-2.8%).
The Labor Department reported a slight decrease in initial jobless claims  for the week ending June 18th. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported in at 229,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level. The previous week’s initial claims value was revised from 229,000 to 231,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 223.500 an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average. Claims continue to hover between 200,000 to 250,000 since hitting a 50+ year low of 166,000 in March. Illinois (-2,476) and Florida (-1,257) led the drop in initial claims, while Michigan’s increase (+1,863) provided a significant offset. For the week ending June 11th, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as insured unemployment remained at 0.9%. Continuing claims reported in at 1.315M up 5,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. The continuing claims 4-week moving average was 1.310M a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level since hitting 1,280,250 in January of 1970. For the week ending June 4th, 1,296,581 people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 14,479 from the previous week’s level. There were some 14,839,818 weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.
The Commerce Department reported new home sales increased for the first time in four months jumping 10.7%  in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000 units. April’s new home sales were also revised significantly higher to 629,000 units from the previously reported 591,000 units. Sales increased in the West (+39.3%) and South (+12.8%), while the Northeast (-51.1%) and Midwest (-18.3%) saw substantial declines in May. The regional year-over-year figures show a split between modest gains and declines with the West (+0.5%) and South (+1.5%) showing increases, and the Northeast (-42.5%) and Midwest (-37.0%) showing significant declines. The median new house price surged 15% year-over-year to $449,000, the average sale price was $511,400. There were 444,000 new homes for sale at the end of May, up from 437,000 units in April. Houses under construction made up roughly 45.4% of the May new home sales, with homes not started accounting for 27.2.%, and completed homes also accounting for about 27.2%.
Upcoming Economic Reports:
Monday June 27 – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
Tuesday June 28 – CB Consumer Confidence (June)